Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-18

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-08) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-08 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-08)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-08) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 100 (56 – 145) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 45 (8.1 – Inf)
Argentina 96 (50 – 133) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -300 (10 – Inf)
Australia 57 (19 – 91) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) -13 (15 – Inf)
Austria 147 (85 – 212) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.9) -8.6 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 62 (27 – 104) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -19 (11 – Inf)
Bahrain 165 (95 – 241) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 8.7 (4.7 – 54)
Bangladesh 245 (193 – 311) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 7.1 (4.9 – 13)
Belarus 415 (330 – 491) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 24 (11 – Inf)
Belgium 1381 (1229 – 1517) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -240 (49 – Inf)
Brazil 2138 (1965 – 2303) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 26 (16 – 65)
Cameroon 25 (3 – 47) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.2) -9.9 (7.8 – Inf)
Canada 1439 (1310 – 1599) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 74 (26 – Inf)
Chile 408 (329 – 484) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -1200 (23 – Inf)
China 150 (102 – 195) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 11 (5.8 – 85)
Colombia 124 (76 – 168) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -12 (2100 – Inf)
Czechia 124 (76 – 173) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -12 (280 – Inf)
Denmark 188 (125 – 238) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -22 (40 – Inf)
Djibouti 101 (60 – 143) Increasing 1.8 (1.3 – 2.3) 5.4 (3.4 – 14)
Dominican Republic 212 (141 – 281) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 66 (11 – Inf)
Ecuador 217 (157 – 267) Decreasing 0.6 (0.4 – 0.9) -4.8 (Inf – Inf)
Egypt 161 (110 – 217) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 130 (11 – Inf)
Estonia 43 (11 – 74) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 62 (5 – Inf)
Finland 108 (60 – 149) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -20 (24 – Inf)
France 3254 (3040 – 3447) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -47 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2789 (2590 – 2999) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.8) -16 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 79 (28 – 128) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 8.8 (3.8 – Inf)
Greece 43 (5 – 81) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.2) -11 (8.6 – Inf)
Hungary 87 (45 – 128) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -22 (16 – Inf)
India 1027 (899 – 1145) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 25 (14 – 89)
Indonesia 328 (260 – 399) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 42 (13 – Inf)
Iran 1581 (1436 – 1731) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -35 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 36 (6 – 66) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.1) -8.1 (11 – Inf)
Ireland 884 (776 – 999) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 34 (16 – Inf)
Israel 404 (326 – 496) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 320 (20 – Inf)
Italy 3218 (2999 – 3432) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -32 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 495 (399 – 570) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -68 (29 – Inf)
Kazakhstan 124 (69 – 166) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 10 (5.2 – 300)
Kuwait 83 (43 – 119) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -45 (12 – Inf)
Lithuania 32 (6 – 54) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -20 (6.8 – Inf)
Luxembourg 54 (17 – 84) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -15 (12 – Inf)
Malaysia 135 (82 – 196) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -79 (13 – Inf)
Mexico 422 (345 – 494) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 38 (14 – Inf)
Moldova 140 (78 – 193) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 44 (8.7 – Inf)
Morocco 167 (114 – 214) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 11 (6.1 – 100)
Netherlands 922 (811 – 1036) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -32 (Inf – Inf)
North Macedonia 77 (38 – 114) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 12 (4.9 – Inf)
Norway 106 (61 – 149) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -82 (12 – Inf)
Oman 99 (50 – 139) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 9.9 (4.8 – Inf)
Pakistan 425 (343 – 492) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 16 (9.2 – 70)
Panama 171 (117 – 216) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -29 (28 – Inf)
Peru 1293 (1149 – 1422) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 15 (11 – 26)
Philippines 254 (186 – 319) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 20 (8.9 – Inf)
Poland 321 (256 – 389) Likely decreasing 1 (0.8 – 1) -43 (41 – Inf)
Portugal 598 (504 – 685) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -20 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico 54 (22 – 84) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) -110 (7.6 – Inf)
Qatar 291 (230 – 354) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (8.6 – 140)
Romania 360 (282 – 422) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 4000 (21 – Inf)
Russia 3072 (2841 – 3289) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 10 (8.8 – 13)
Saudi Arabia 484 (398 – 566) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 16 (9.4 – 51)
Serbia 468 (374 – 543) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 10 (6.8 – 19)
Singapore 485 (399 – 565) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.9 (5.8 – 12)
Slovakia 67 (37 – 105) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) 11 (4.3 – Inf)
South Africa 124 (71 – 177) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 15 (6.1 – Inf)
South Korea 39 (7 – 67) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) 700 (5.1 – Inf)
Spain 4357 (4120 – 4624) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -40 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 515 (425 – 603) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -74 (35 – Inf)
Switzerland 378 (300 – 442) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.8) -12 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 44 (11 – 75) Unsure 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -23 (7.5 – Inf)
Turkey 4381 (4095 – 4631) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 430 (59 – Inf)
Ukraine 435 (356 – 518) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 12 (7.5 – 28)
United Arab Emirates 428 (349 – 502) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 28 (13 – Inf)
United Kingdom 4751 (4482 – 4987) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) -59 (890 – Inf)
United States of America 28929 (28270 – 29576) Decreasing 1 (1 – 1) -69 (Inf – Inf)
Uzbekistan 143 (79 – 201) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 12 (5.4 – Inf)