Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-18

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-08) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-08 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-08. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-08)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-08) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country/Region	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling time (days)
Algeria	100 (56 – 145)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	45 (8.1 – Inf)
Argentina	96 (50 – 133)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-300 (10 – Inf)
Australia	57 (19 – 91)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.5 – 0.9)	-13 (15 – Inf)
Austria	147 (85 – 212)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.6 – 0.9)	-8.6 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan	62 (27 – 104)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-19 (11 – Inf)
Bahrain	165 (95 – 241)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.8)	8.7 (4.7 – 54)
Bangladesh	245 (193 – 311)	Increasing	1.6 (1.3 – 1.9)	7.1 (4.9 – 13)
Belarus	415 (330 – 491)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	24 (11 – Inf)
Belgium	1381 (1229 – 1517)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1)	-240 (49 – Inf)
Brazil	2138 (1965 – 2303)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	26 (16 – 65)
Cameroon	25 (3 – 47)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.3 – 1.2)	-9.9 (7.8 – Inf)
Canada	1439 (1310 – 1599)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	74 (26 – Inf)
Chile	408 (329 – 484)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-1200 (23 – Inf)
China	150 (102 – 195)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.6)	11 (5.8 – 85)
Colombia	124 (76 – 168)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-12 (2100 – Inf)
Czechia	124 (76 – 173)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-12 (280 – Inf)
Denmark	188 (125 – 238)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-22 (40 – Inf)
Djibouti	101 (60 – 143)	Increasing	1.8 (1.3 – 2.3)	5.4 (3.4 – 14)
Dominican Republic	212 (141 – 281)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	66 (11 – Inf)
Ecuador	217 (157 – 267)	Decreasing	0.6 (0.4 – 0.9)	-4.8 (Inf – Inf)
Egypt	161 (110 – 217)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	130 (11 – Inf)
Estonia	43 (11 – 74)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	62 (5 – Inf)
Finland	108 (60 – 149)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-20 (24 – Inf)
France	3254 (3040 – 3447)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-47 (Inf – Inf)
Germany	2789 (2590 – 2999)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.8 – 0.8)	-16 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana	79 (28 – 128)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.9 – 2.1)	8.8 (3.8 – Inf)
Greece	43 (5 – 81)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.4 – 1.2)	-11 (8.6 – Inf)
Hungary	87 (45 – 128)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-22 (16 – Inf)
India	1027 (899 – 1145)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	25 (14 – 89)
Indonesia	328 (260 – 399)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	42 (13 – Inf)
Iran	1581 (1436 – 1731)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 0.9)	-35 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq	36 (6 – 66)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.4 – 1.1)	-8.1 (11 – Inf)
Ireland	884 (776 – 999)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	34 (16 – Inf)
Israel	404 (326 – 496)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	320 (20 – Inf)
Italy	3218 (2999 – 3432)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 0.9)	-32 (Inf – Inf)
Japan	495 (399 – 570)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-68 (29 – Inf)
Kazakhstan	124 (69 – 166)	Increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.7)	10 (5.2 – 300)
Kuwait	83 (43 – 119)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-45 (12 – Inf)
Lithuania	32 (6 – 54)	Unsure	0.9 (0.5 – 1.4)	-20 (6.8 – Inf)
Luxembourg	54 (17 – 84)	Unsure	0.9 (0.5 – 1.2)	-15 (12 – Inf)
Malaysia	135 (82 – 196)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-79 (13 – Inf)
Mexico	422 (345 – 494)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	38 (14 – Inf)
Moldova	140 (78 – 193)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	44 (8.7 – Inf)
Morocco	167 (114 – 214)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	11 (6.1 – 100)
Netherlands	922 (811 – 1036)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-32 (Inf – Inf)
North Macedonia	77 (38 – 114)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	12 (4.9 – Inf)
Norway	106 (61 – 149)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-82 (12 – Inf)
Oman	99 (50 – 139)	Increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.7)	9.9 (4.8 – Inf)
Pakistan	425 (343 – 492)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	16 (9.2 – 70)
Panama	171 (117 – 216)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-29 (28 – Inf)
Peru	1293 (1149 – 1422)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	15 (11 – 26)
Philippines	254 (186 – 319)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	20 (8.9 – Inf)
Poland	321 (256 – 389)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.8 – 1)	-43 (41 – Inf)
Portugal	598 (504 – 685)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-20 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico	54 (22 – 84)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.4)	-110 (7.6 – Inf)
Qatar	291 (230 – 354)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	16 (8.6 – 140)
Romania	360 (282 – 422)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	4000 (21 – Inf)
Russia	3072 (2841 – 3289)	Increasing	1.4 (1.3 – 1.5)	10 (8.8 – 13)
Saudi Arabia	484 (398 – 566)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	16 (9.4 – 51)
Serbia	468 (374 – 543)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.5)	10 (6.8 – 19)
Singapore	485 (399 – 565)	Increasing	1.5 (1.3 – 1.7)	7.9 (5.8 – 12)
Slovakia	67 (37 – 105)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.9 – 1.9)	11 (4.3 – Inf)
South Africa	124 (71 – 177)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.6)	15 (6.1 – Inf)
South Korea	39 (7 – 67)	Unsure	0.9 (0.5 – 1.4)	700 (5.1 – Inf)
Spain	4357 (4120 – 4624)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-40 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden	515 (425 – 603)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-74 (35 – Inf)
Switzerland	378 (300 – 442)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.8)	-12 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand	44 (11 – 75)	Unsure	0.8 (0.5 – 1.2)	-23 (7.5 – Inf)
Turkey	4381 (4095 – 4631)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	430 (59 – Inf)
Ukraine	435 (356 – 518)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	12 (7.5 – 28)
United Arab Emirates	428 (349 – 502)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	28 (13 – Inf)
United Kingdom	4751 (4482 – 4987)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	-59 (890 – Inf)
United States of America	28929 (28270 – 29576)	Decreasing	1 (1 – 1)	-69 (Inf – Inf)
Uzbekistan	143 (79 – 201)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.7)	12 (5.4 – Inf)